When Congressman Rush Holt unexpectedly retired, it set up a four-way Democratic primary with only about three and a half months to campaign, a timeline that favors candidates voters already know.

Assemblywoman Bonnie Watson Coleman began the race 10 points down in state Sen. Linda Greenstein's internal poll, which Greenstein released publicly, and pundits called Greenstein a shoo-in. Greenstein and Assemblyman Upendra Chivukula both ran significant TV, and Watson Coleman was outspent 7-to-1 on paid media in a district that is 65% white.

The campaign invested early in a microtargeting model that identified, voter by voter, who would support her, who could be persuaded, and who needed a push to turn out.

The model let the campaign focus 100% of its paid TV and mail on the top persuasion areas, and we built it into our online ads, targeting pre-roll video to the specific persuasion and turnout voters who would decide the race. A survey a week before the election sharpened the get-out-the-vote program, helping the campaign stretch every dollar.

Two weeks out, a public poll had the race essentially tied, 25% to 24%. Watson Coleman won 43% to Greenstein's 28%, a 15-point margin, as more than 36,000 people voted.

She went on to become the first Black congresswoman from New Jersey.